Climbing Mortality Models

Misurina (BL) - Italy.
August 30 - September 2, 2022. [Bando MIUR PRIN 2017]

Image by Giampaolo Trapasso; License: CC BY-SA 3.0

This workshop aims at creating the bases for a fruitful collaboration among statisticians and demographers in terms of future research directions on mortality modeling and forecasting.

Jointly organised by Bocconi and Padova Universities, within the research project SELECT.


Misurina is located at the North of Italy, in the Dolomites (see map).

A Shuttle service from and to Venice Airport will be provided for those who make request. If you want to book your seat on shuttle service please fill in this form.

The workshop will take place at the Grand Hotel Misurina.


: : :
August 30, 2022
Event Time Details
Session [19:00-19:45] Longevity trends, risk factors and morbidity compression.
Stefano Campostrini. University Ca' Foscari of Venice
[20:00-21:30] Welcoming Dinner.
August 31, 2022
Session [08:15-09:15] Bayesian nonparametric common atoms regression for generating synthetic matching populations.
Peter Muller. University of Texas
Session 1 [09:15-10:45] Climbing composite data
Inaki Permanyer - Age at morbidity onset and mortality dynamics.
Gregor Zens - Dynamic Bayesian Modeling of Cause-Specific Mortality.
Emanuele De Paoli - Functional concurrent regression with compositional covariates to study the time-varying effect of causes of death on human longevity.
Tim Riffe - Decomposing differences in multistate indices: Compositional reflections.
[10:45-11:00] Coffee Break.
Session 2 [11:00-13:00] Climbing unsmooth data
Gian Carlo Camarda - The joy of smoothing demographic data.
Lucia Zanotto - On the smoothing of death curves using mixtures of probability distributions.
Chiara Micheletti - The association between containment measures implemented by countries across the world and excess mortality linked to Covid-19: A study based on functional data analysis.
Marco Stefanucci - Functional regression models with interpretable sparse structure.
Mauro Bernardi - TBA.
[13:00-14:30] Lunch time.
Session [14:30-15:30] Mortality Research and the Data Revolution.
Emilio Zagheni. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
[15:30-18:00] Free time.
Session [18:00-19:00] Forecasting the old-age dependency ratio to determine a sustainable pension age.
Rob Hyndman. Monash University
Session 3 [19:00-20:30] Climbing inequality
Alyson Van Raalte - Musings on lifespan variation from a cohort perspective.
Serena Vigezzi - The sex gaps of life expectancy and lifespan variation in Europe.
Marco Bonetti - Modeling family history effects in disease development.
Josè Manuel Aburto - An integrated approach to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on racial/ethnic USA mortality outcomes in 2020.
[20:30-21:30] Dinner.
September 1, 2022
Event Time Details
[08:30-17:30] Climbing session. Proposed tour of "Tre Cime di Lavaredo".
Session 4 [17:30-19:30] Climbing forecasting models
Daniele Durante - Advances in Bayesian discrete choice models (with a demographic modeling perspective).
Emanuele Aliverti - Dynamic modelling of mortality via mixtures of skewed distribution functions.
Aihnoa Elena Leger - Forecasting monthly mortality using ratios of deaths of consecutive months.
Federico Pavone - Bayesian learning and forecasting of age-specific period mortality via locally adaptive spline processes.
Ugofilippo Basellini - Lee-Carter Cohort Mortality Forecasts.
[20:00-21:30] Dinner.
September 2, 2022
Session [08:15-09:15] The impact of COVID on mortality in the US and UK.
Jennifer Beam Dowd. Oxford University
Session 5 [09:15-10:45] Climbing multi-component models
Annette Baudisch - Evolutionary perspective on mortality modeling.
Samuel Clark - SVD Component Model of Mortality: SVD-Comp.
Virginia Zarulli - The onset of the old-age gender gap.
Raffaella Piccarreta - Multichannel sequence analysis: new insights.
[10:45-11:00] Coffee Break.
Session 6 [11:00-12:30] Climbing Latent Groups models
Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter - Bayesian factor analysis.
Sirio Legramanti - Bayesian cumulative shrinkage for infinite factorizations.
Davide Agnoletto - Estimation of mortality curves using BNP.
Brendan Murphy - Model-based clustering of multivariate count data.

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